Report on World Tourism Economy Trends (2018) Excerpt -3 Tourism industry grows faster in emerging economies

1. The tourism industry has grown faster in emerging economies and formed a bigger scale

(1) The shares of emerging economies by total tourist arrivals and total tourism revenue have both risen by around 1%

Judging from the trend in 2006 and 2017, emerging economies are evidently faster than developed economies in terms of total tourism revenue (Figure 1.10 and Figure 1.11). In 2017, developed economies recorded the total tourist arrivals of 3.39 billion, representing a rise of 2.2% year on year and 28.6% of global total, and the share fell down by 1.3% from the previous year, while emerging economies recorded the total tourist arrivals of 8.48 billion, representing a rise of 8.7% and 71.4% of the global total, and the share went up by 1.3% over the previous year. The developed economies recorded the total tourism revenue of USD 3.2 trillion, representing a rise of 2.7% year on year and 61.1% of global total, and the share fell down by 0.9% from the previous year, while emerging economies recorded the total tourism revenue of USD 2.0 trillion, representing a rise of 6.9% and 38.9% of the global total, and the share went up by 0.9% over the previous year.

Figure 1.10 Growth Rates of Different Economies by Total Tourist Arrivals (2006-2017)

Figure 1.11 Growth Rates of Different Economies by Total Tourism revenue (2006-2017)

(2) Emerging economies received 70% of global tourists

From 2006 to 2017, emerging economies have increased the share in global total tourist arrivals by 22.4% from 49.0% to 71.4% and increased the share in global total tourism revenue by 13.7% from 25.2% to 38.9% (Figure 1.12 and Figure 1.13).

Figure 1.12 Shares of Emerging Economies and Developed Economies in Global Total Tourist Arrivals (2006-2017)

Figure 1.13 Shares of Emerging Economies and Developed Economies in Global Total Tourism revenue (2006-2017)

(3) In future, emerging economies will evidently outgrow the developed economies by total tourist arrivals and total tourism revenue

In future, the tourism growth rate of developed economies will further decline. We expect that in 2018, emerging economies will see a growth rate of 8.7% for total tourist arrivals and 9.3% for total tourism revenue respectively, while the corresponding figures of developed economies will be 1.8% and 3.7% respectively (Table 1.13).

Table 1.13 Growth Rates of Total Tourism revenue of Emerging Economies and Developed Economies in 2018 (Forecast)

2. BRICS countries have caught eyeballs with tourism development

(1) BRICS members have contributed three quarters of the total tourist arrivals of emerging economies

In 2017, the BRICS members will receive the total of 6.36 billion tourists, representing a rise of 3.96% and up to 75.0% in the total tourist arrivals of emerging economies (Figure 1.14). Therefore, they have become an important part of the tourism in emerging economies.

We expect that in 2018, the total tourist arrivals of the BRICS members will hit 6.59 billion, a rise of 3.57% (Table 1.14).

Table 1.14 Total Tourist Arrivals of BRICS Members

Figure 1.14 Share of BRICS Members in Emerging Economies by Total Tourist Arrivals

(2) BRICS members have contributed more than half of total tourism revenue of emerging economies

In 2017, BRICS members will realize the total tourism revenue of USD 1.05 trillion, representing a rise of 6.97% (Table 1.13) and up to 51.1% in the total tourism revenue of emerging economies (Figure 1.15). Therefore, they have made an important contribution to the tourism economy in emerging economies.

We expect that in 2018, the total tourism revenue of BRICS members will hit USD 1.10 trillion, a rise of 5.49% (Table 1.15).

Table 1.15 Total Tourism revenue of BRICS Members

Figure 1.15 Share of BRICS Members in Emerging Economies by Total Tourism revenue