Global air passenger demand ‘expected to double’ by 2050

Global air passenger demand is forecast to more than double by 2050, according to the latest projections by Iata.

Asia Pacific and Africa are expected to be the highest growth areas, while Europe and North America will see a slower level of expansion.

The airline trade body’s long-term forecast suggests that demand is forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% from 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024. 

A higher growth scenario would see a 3.3% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050. A lower growth scenario would see 2.9% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050.

Iata noted: “The different scenarios are driven by alternative modeling of long-term economic growth, populations, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development.

“The pace of growth will be uneven across regions, reflecting differences in demographics, market maturity, economic development and connectivity potential.”

No mention was made of the impact of the Middle East conflict on the forecasts.

However, the report confirmed that the pandemic caused a “permanent structural shift” in global aviation demand.

“Unlike previous crises, the unprecedented collapse in RPK has created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to the pre-pandemic GDP-aligned trend by 2050, even under the high growth scenario,” Iata noted.

“While long term demand remains robust, the growth rate is moderating gradually. Historical analysis shows that average annual growth slowed from 6.1% CAGR between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5% CAGR between 1998 and 2024.

“The central scenario for 2024-2050 projects a further slowing to 3.1% CAGR.

“This gradual moderation reflects market maturity rather than weakening demand, as absolute passenger numbers continue to rise significantly.” 

Iata director general Willie Walsh said: “The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century.

“That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world.

“Our long-term demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition.”