Boeing predicts $6tn aviation market to 2036

Boeing has projected demand for 39,620 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 4.1 per cent over last year’s forecast.

Boeing released its annual Current Market Outlook on the first day of the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $5.9 trillion.

“Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

“We expect to see passenger traffic grow 4.8 per cent a year over the next two decades.”

The single-aisle market will be especially strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth.

Some 28,140 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of more than five per cent over last year.

On the wide-body side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021- 2028 time frame.

Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium wide-bodies such as the 787, 777 and 777X.

With cargo traffic forecasted to grow at 4.2 per-cent per year, Boeing projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.