Report Interpretation (I): The World Tourism Economy Estimated to Enter the Track for Recovery

On March 1st, 2021, the World Tourism Cities Federation released the Report on World Tourism Economy Trends (2021) in Beijing (hereinafter referred to as the Report).

In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic dealt a heavy blow to the world economy and trade. The hardest-hit area was tourism, an industry relying heavily on the movement and communication of people. Most countries and regions put a ban on tourism and social distancing policies were widely adopted around the globe. The global tourism faced various challenges in the demand of consumption, tourism investment, regional development landscape, the industrial chain, business survival and employment as a result.

The Report showed that the global tourist arrivals (including domestic and international tourist arrivals, the same below) in 2020 decreased to 7,278 million, down by 40.8% YoY. In the same year, the world's total tourist revenue (including domestic and international tourist revenue, the same below) declined to 2.92 trillion US dollars, down by 50.9% YoY.

In 2020, the international tourist arrivals stood at 487 million, down by 65.2% YoY, and the international tourist revenue stood at 560 billion US dollars, showing a YoY decline of 68.7%, a bigger decline than the global trade. In the same year, the world's domestic tourist arrivals stood at 6,791 million, down by 37.6% YoY, and the world's domestic tourist revenue 2.36 trillion US dollars, down by 43.2% YoY.

It is estimated that the global tourism will witness drastic growth in 2021. The world's total tourist arrivals and revenue will climb back and account for 77.7% and 76.5% of the levels in 2019 respectively. In 2021, the international tourist arrivals will increase by 98.9% YoY to 968 million, accounting for 69.3% of the level in 2019. The international tourist revenue will reach 1.27 trillion US dollars, the same as 70.7% of the level in 2019. Moreover, the domestic tourist arrivals will reach 8,577 million and the domestic tourist revenue 3.23 trillion US dollars. The two figures will account for 78.8% and 77.7% of the levels in 2019 respectively.

The rate of decline in the revenue of global total tourism in 2020 is 10 percentage points less than that of the aviation industry. COVID-19 chipped away at the proportion of global total tourism revenue to global GDP to 3.6% by a large margin. However, the figure is expected to recover to 5.3% in 2021.

The five major regions around the globe were struck by different fluctuations in the tourism economy. Tourism markets in various regions plummeted in general while their decline and recovery might vary to a small extent. Europe's tourism market showed the biggest decline, followed by the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region. In comparison with the levels in 2019, the Report predicted that tourism in the Asian-Pacific region and the Middle East might recover fastest, followed by the Americas and Europe. Africa could be the slowest in recovery. The recovery of total tourism revenue for the five regions is better than that of the total tourist arrivals.

In addition, the Report also provided an analysis into the tourism development trends of developed and emerging economies.

For the developed economies, the total tourist arrivals and revenue dropped by around 48% in 2020. It is expected that the total tourist arrivals will increase by 43.0% YoY to 2.61 billion, returning to 73.2% of the level in 2019. The total tourist revenue will climb by 40.2% YoY to 2.6 trillion US dollars, rebounding to 73.1% of the level in 2019.

For emerging economies, the total tourist arrivals and revenue declined by over 44% and 55% respectively in 2020. In 2021, the total tourist arrivals are expected to reach 6.94 billion, returning to 79.5% of the level in 2019. Besides, the total tourist revenue is likely to hit 1.93 trillion US dollars, recovering to 79.3% of the level in 2019.