Italy counts on 3.1 pct increase in tourist arrivals in 2020

Aligned with the global upward trend, international tourist arrivals in Italy are expected to increase by 3.1 percent annually in 2020, according to projections published by the Venice-based International Center for Studies on Tourism Economics (CISET) on Wednesday.

"The scenario shows a positive dynamic for Italy in line with global trends," CISET said in its report.

However, it also said that the increase in international tourist arrivals would be more limited compared to the previous two years from all of the areas considered, and particularly from northern Europe.

"The positive trend from emerging markets -- and in particular from Southeast Asia and from China -- will remain above the average of some of the traditional markets, and this will allow arrivals to Italy to grow by 3.1 percent," CISET said.

According to this forecast, Italy will receive an estimated 74 million foreign tourists this year.

The tourism sector is expected to continue growing worldwide. "Despite caution caused by uncertainty at geopolitical level, a 3.5 percent (annual) increase -- equal to 1.5 billion arrivals overall -- is expected in 2020," the report said.

TRENDS BY REGION

Based on figures from the Bank of Italy on domestic tourism and from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) on the global trends, the CISET report is published twice a year in cooperation with Ca' Foscari University of Venice.

The report looks at four macro-areas: the Mediterranean, central Europe, northern Europe and extra-Europe (including the Americas, Asia and south-east Asia, and Africa).

Outbound tourist departures from non-European countries are projected to increase by 3.5 percent in 2020, the report said.

This would likely translate into a significant 4.8 percent increase in arrivals in Italy from the area, the report said.

Tourist arrivals from the United States in Italy are expected to increase by 6.6 percent.

"The trend from Japan would also be positive, with an expected 4.6 percent rise in arrivals, confirming the strong interest of Japanese travelers in our country," the CISET noted.

In terms of absolute numbers, the number of tourists from central European countries visiting Italy is expected to reach 26 million this year.

In percentage terms, arrivals from central Europe are expected to increase by a below-average 1.9 percent, the report said.

The number of tourists traveling to Italy from northern Europe is expected to exceed 6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percent.

"The United Kingdom -- which generates almost two-thirds of the total inflows from this macro-area -- will be characterized by an upward trend slightly above 1.1 percent," the report said.

Tourist arrivals from the Mediterranean area - especially from Spain and France -- are expected to "moderately" increase by 1.5 percent.

PRUDENT OPTIMISM WORLDWIDE

Based on UNWTO figures, the Italian report also offers a glimpse into global tourism trends in 2020.

"Persisting uncertainty at geopolitical level and in the global economy foster a prudent behavior also in choosing holiday destinations and the related budget," the CISET explained.

The report estimates that worldwide international tourism arrivals would exceed 1.5 billion in 2020 -- an increase of some 130 million in absolute numbers year on year.

Tourism is a major source of income for Italy, which is the eurozone's third largest economy.

Over 40 million foreign tourists visited the country in 2018, according to the latest available figures published by the Bank of Italy in June 2019. They spent almost 42 billion euros (46.6 billion U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percent.

In the same year, about 65.7 million Italians traveled abroad for holiday, spending a total of 25.5 billion euros (up 4.1 percent over the previous year).

The sector's positive net balance (revenues from inbound flows minus expenditure of outbound flows) equaled 0.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) that year, the Bank of Italy said.