Newly Released Report on World Tourism Economy Trends Expects Global Tourist Arrivals to Reach 10.78 Billion

The World Tourism Cities Federation Changsha Fragrant Hills Tourism Summit 2023 (hereinafter referred to as the "Summit") kicked off on 10 May in Changsha, China. At the Summit, Song Rui, an expert of the World Tourism Cities Federation (WTCF) and Director of the Tourism Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), unveiled the Report on World Tourism Economy Trends (2023) (hereinafter referred to as the Report).

Song Rui, an expert of WTCF and Director of the Tourism Research Center, CASS, unveils the Report on World Tourism Economy Trends (2023).

In 2022, as vaccination rates continue to rise, countries around the world are starting to remove all COVID-19 restrictions and implement policies to revitalize tourism. This has led to a sustained increase in the growth rate of the tourism economy, heralding new trends and patterns in world tourism development. To proactively seek out and capitalize on emerging opportunities that enhance the development of the world economy and the tourism sector, and foster a thriving global tourism industry, collaboration among governments, tourism cities, and industry players is needed to reach consensuses, make decisions in a scientific manner, and work together toward shared objectives.

WTCF and CASS's Tourism Research Center have jointly conducted a study and published this Report which is aimed at expediting the global tourism industry's revival, according to Song Rui. The Report provides a comprehensive analysis and summary of the global tourism industry's economic recovery in 2022 from global, regional, national, municipal, industrial and other perspectives, and reveals five key features of the industry's recovery in 2023. The Report covers the changes in the development patterns of the Middle East, Europe, America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific regions, and the tourism development performances of the T20 countries (the top 20 countries in the world in terms of total tourism revenue). Additionally, this academic work discusses innovative strategies adopted by key cities for tourism development and revitalization, as well as development trends of core industries and tourism enterprises. Its findings offer vital decision-making references and intellectual support for promoting a more resilient and sustainable world tourism economy.

According to the Report, in 2022, global tourist arrivals reached 9.57 billion while the total revenue hit USD 4.6 trillion, accounting for 66.1% and 79.6% respectively of the figures from 2019. The proportion of the industry's total tourism revenue to global GDP has rebounded to 4.8%, representing a 0.7% rise from the figure reported in 2021. In 2022, domestic tourism recovered faster than international tourism across the globe. While the growth rate of global international tourism revenue is higher than that of global trade, the recovery performances of the tourism sectors in developed economies surpassed that of emerging economies.

The Report predicts that global tourism will witness 10.78 billion tourist arrivals and generate a total revenue of USD 5.0 trillion in 2023. These figures represent an increase of 74.4% and 86.2% respectively compared to the pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Twelve T20 countries are predicted to generate more than 90% of their pre-pandemic tourism revenues.

Song added that the global tourism economy is presently experiencing a gradual revival and has undergone extensive and systematic changes at various levels. This will create a better prospect for global tourism, however, it is essential to recognize that the future recovery of global tourism is also contingent upon the global macroeconomic outlook. The uncertainty surrounding the global economy at present will continue to impact tourism industry prospects.

The Report suggests that the global tourism industry will have five features during its recovery in 2023.

First, the global economy is currently facing numerous development dilemmas, making the revitalization of the tourism industry much more daunting than during times of economic stability. Depending on their own circumstances, different countries and regions will face varying degrees and types of complexity in their recoveries and will exhibit different capacities to cope, leading to different patterns of tourism development.

Second, the emphasis on post-pandemic tourism restoration is being shifted towards quality rather than quantity. This is dependent on industrial cooperation throughout the world, as well as countries' continued efforts towards improving their tourism governance capacities.

Third, in the short run, three crucial variables impact the quality of global tourism recovery, namely the level of tourism recovery, the level of inflation and the level of labor shortage.

Fourth, in the medium and long run, the growth of the world economy and tourism industry will rely heavily on enhancing total factor productivity. To achieve this, greater efforts must be made to integrate science and technologies into the tourism sector, attract knowledgeable personnel to the industry, and establish a smarter tourism policy and governance system. These measures are critical to reshaping the current tourism growth model and enhancing total factor productivity.

Fifth, the power of innovation will reshape patterns of the world tourism industry. Innovation will not only fuel further growth in the world tourism industry but will also be a main driving force behind the creation of a new tourism landscape.

Since 2016, WTCF and the CASS's Tourism Research Center have been releasing annual Reports on World Tourism Economy Trends. This series of reports aims to identify global economic trends, closely analyze hot topics within the tourism industry, provide scientifically grounded predictions about tourism's prospects on a global scale, and offer valuable analysis and suggestions to stakeholders and practitioners around the globe. This series of reports has been of great interest and widely utilized by the global tourism industry.